논문 상세정보

한국 수출 컨테이너 물동량의 장기수요 예측에 관한 연구
A Study on the Total Demand for Korean Container Cargo

학술지명	국제상학 (ISSN : 1229-3393)
발행정보	1999-05-30 / Vol.14 No.1 / pp. 77 ~ 89
발행처/학회	한국국제상학회
주저자	고용기 (중앙대학교)
색인어	Scenario, Decision Analysis, Quantum Index, Containerisation Ratio

부초록(다른언어)
The aim of this paper is to make projection of the demand for container traffic for export originating in Korea over the period in question. Decision Analysis is used as a forecasting method instead of quantitative analysis. First, the method explores ...

The aim of this paper is to make projection of the demand for container traffic for export originating in Korea over the period in question. Decision Analysis is used as a forecasting method instead of quantitative analysis. First, the method explores leading indicators which may reflect the change of aggregate economic conditions which precede or lead to changes in container traffic trends. It is noted that in terms of the aggregate merchandise export volume, historic developments in Japan are similar to the present in Korea. Consequently, the future progress of the Korean indicators can be anticipated on the basis of comparison with Japanese developments. Thus, a set of scenarios on the gap between the two countries' respective progress are formed and a projection of future container traffic demand is chosen by adopting the likeliest scenario.