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부문간 및 부문내 노동이동에 대한 균형분석
이 보고서는 한국연구재단(NRF, National Research Foundation of Korea)이 지원한 연구과제( 부문간 및 부문내 노동이동에 대한 균형분석 | 2005 년 신청요강 다운로드 PDF다운로드 | 신동균(한양대학교) ) 연구결과물 로 제출된 자료입니다.
한국연구재단 인문사회연구지원사업을 통해 연구비를 지원받은 연구자는 연구기간 종료 후 6개월 이내에 결과보고서를 제출하여야 합니다.(*사업유형에 따라 결과보고서 제출 시기가 다를 수 있음.)
  • 연구자가 한국연구재단 연구지원시스템에 직접 입력한 정보입니다.
연구과제번호 B00107
선정년도 2005 년
과제진행현황 종료
제출상태 재단승인
등록완료일 2007년 01월 20일
연차구분 결과보고
결과보고년도 2007년
결과보고시 연구요약문
  • 국문
  • 현 연구에서는 부문간 노동이동에 대한 균형분석을 시도한다. 분석의 초점은 장기적인 관점에서 본 부문간 노동이동의 유인에 있다. Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) 데이터에 근거하여 분석한 결과 다른 조건이 같을 경우 (실직전 임금 대비) 재취업 직후의 임금의 하락은 같은 부문 내에서 이동한 사람들과 비교하여 부문간을 이동한 사람들의 경우 약 18% 더 떨어지는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 재취업 직장에서의 임금 증가율은 부문 간을 이동하는 사람들의 경우 더 높게 나타났다. 부문간 이동자와 부문 내에서의 이동자 사이의 임금증가율의 차이는 약 4.5%로 나타났다. 이에 따라 재취업 후 약 4년이 경과되면 부문간 이동자의 임금이 부문 내 이동자의 임금을 따라잡게 된다. 이러한 현 연구의 결과에 비추어 볼 때 부문간 이동에 따른 단기에서의 손실만을 강조한 기존의 연구들은 결국 부문간 노동이동의 경제적 비용을 과대평가했다고 볼 수 있다. 이론적 고찰을 통하여 본 결과 현 연구의 모형은 부문간 및 부문 내 노동의 이동을 균형의 틀 속에서 수량적으로 설명할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다.

    현 연구는 또한 실업기간이 재취업 직후의 임금 뿐만이 아니라 재취업 직장에서 장기적으로 받게되는 모든 임금들과 동시에 결정됨을 보이고 있다. 기존의 연구들에서는 실업의 경험이 재취업 후의 임금에 장기적으로 영향을 미침을 보이고 있는데 이에 더하여 현 연구에서는 직장 탐색자가 실업기간을 결정함에 있어서 재취업 직후의 임금 뿐만이 아니라 그 이후에도 지속적으로 받게될 일련의 임금을 모두 고려함을 보이고 있다. 결국 현 연구에서는 최초로 실업기간과 재취업후 장기적으로 받게될 임금 사이의 내생성을 다루고 있다.
  • 영문
  • The current study presents an equilibrium explanation of the sectoral mobility of workers. It focuses on the long-term incentives of inter-sectoral mobility and argues that movers may receive as many benefits as stayers do. Analyses of our sample from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) show that, other things being equal, the initial wage loss is approximately 18% greater for movers than stayers. Movers, however, enjoy higher wage growth in subsequent years than stayers do. The mover-stayer difference in the wage growth associated with an additional year of post-unemployment tenure is estimated at 4.5%. These figures suggest that the additional short-term wage decline associated with sector change is overturned within four years by the higher wage growth of movers. The findings in the current study clearly show that the true economic costs of inter-sectoral mobility tend to be overstated in existing studies and are significantly lowered in the long-term perspective, insomuch as they suggest that inter-sectoral mobility is a rational choice for movers. Calibration of our model demonstrates that inter- and intra-sectoral movements of workers are quantitatively explained in an equilibrium framework, at least for a major group of workers who move with longer-term perspectives.
    Our empirical evidence also shows that the duration of unemployment is jointly determined not just with the initial wage rate but also with the subsequent wages received from the post-unemployment job. While the duration of unemployment has long-term effects on wages due to the loss of general human capital, scar effects, or declining reservation wages, job seekers also consider the entire wage stream they expect to receive from a new job when deciding whether to recommence employment.
연구결과보고서
  • 초록
  • This paper presents an equilibrium explanation of the inter- and intra-sectoral mobility of workers. Analyses of our samples from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth show that, other things being equal, the initial wage decline is greater for inter-sectoral movers than intra-sector movers. Inter-sectoral movers, however, enjoy higher wage growth in subsequent years on the post-unemployment job than intra-sectoral movers do, and hence are compensated for their initial wage decline. Our estimates suggest that, other things being constant, the additional short-term wage loss associated with sector shifts is overturned in no more than four years by the greater wage growth in subsequent years of inter-sectoral movers. The findings in the current study clearly show that the true economic costs of inter-sector mobility tend to be overstated in existing studies and are significantly lowered in the long-term perspective. Calibration of our model demonstrates that inter- and intra-sectoral movements of workers are quantitatively explained in an equilibrium framework, at least for a major group of workers who move with longer-term perspectives. Evidence also shows that the duration of unemployment is jointly determined not just with the initial wage rate but also with the subsequent wages received from the post-unemployment job.
  • 연구결과 및 활용방안
  • In this paper we have attempted to explain why workers change sectors upon job separation, when inter-sectoral shifts are accompanied by the following various costs. First, movers experience longer durations of unemployment than stayers do. Our calculations based on the PSID sample (which replicates Starr-McCluer, 1993) revealed that the ratio of average unemployment duration for changers to stayers is approximately 2. The actual ratio will be greater than 2 when one takes into account that the right-censored spells, which are more likely to be those of movers, are dropped in the calculation. Second, other things being equal, the initial wage loss was approximately 18% greater for movers than stayers.
    Our answer lies in recognizing that movers enjoy higher wage growth in subsequent years of the post-unemployment job than stayers do. The mover-stayer difference in the wage growth associated with an additional year of post-unemployment tenure was estimated at 4.5%. These figures suggested that the additional short-term wage loss associated with sector change is overturned within four years by the greater wage growth of movers. The findings in the current study clearly demonstrated that the true economic costs of inter-sector mobility tend to be overstated in existing studies and that movers can coexist with stayers in equilibrium. Calibration of our model demonstrated that inter- and intra-sectoral movements of workers are quantitatively explained in an equilibrium framework, at least for a major group of workers who move with longer-term perspectives.
    Our empirical evidence also showed that the duration of unemployment is jointly determined not just with the initial wage rate but also with the subsequent wages received from the post-unemployment job. While the duration of unemployment has long-term effects on wages due to the loss of general human capital, scar effects, or declining reservation wages, job seekers also consider the entire wage stream they expect to receive in the future when deciding whether to recommence employment or not.
  • 색인어
  • Inter-sectoral mover, Intra-sectoral mover, Duration of unemployment, Initial wages, Wage growth
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