‘스웨덴 모델’은 1980년대 이후 보다 시장친화적 사회경제체제로 변모해왔다. 이 연구는 이러한 모델 전환을 스웨덴 모델을 구성했던 정책들과 제도들 사이의 내적 긴장의 결과로 설명하고자 시도하였다. 특히 스웨덴 모델의 문제점을 해결하기 위해 스웨덴 사민당 정부가 ...

‘스웨덴 모델’은 1980년대 이후 보다 시장친화적 사회경제체제로 변모해왔다. 이 연구는 이러한 모델 전환을 스웨덴 모델을 구성했던 정책들과 제도들 사이의 내적 긴장의 결과로 설명하고자 시도하였다. 특히 스웨덴 모델의 문제점을 해결하기 위해 스웨덴 사민당 정부가 1980년대에 추진한 ‘제3의 길 정책’ 역시 중요한 ‘정책 부조화’를 안고 있었던 관계로 경제문제들을 해결하는 데 실패했다는 점을 강조했다. 제3의 길 정책이 새로운 안정적 규범을 확립하는 데 실패한 이유는 다양한 ‘정책 부조화’와 정책 및 제도들과 이를 둘러싼 환경간의 부조응에서 찾을 수 있다. 이 연구의 분석 틀은 다음 개념들을 핵심 개념으로 사용한다. 1) 정책 부조화와 정책-환경 부조화, 2) 규범기반정책 대 규범파괴정책: ‘규범기반정책’이란 기존의 규범들을 존중하는 정책이고 ‘규범파괴정책’은 그 반대이다. 규범기반정책은 ‘시장규범기반정책’과 ‘비시장적 조정을 통한 규범기반정책’으로 구분할 수 있는데 전성기 스웨덴 모델에서의 규범기반정책은 후자였다. 비시장적 조정을 통한 규범기반정책이 잘 작동하려면 다음과 같은 요소들을 필요로 한다; 게임 참여자들간의 상호신뢰와 세력균형, 균형잡인 보상, 외부자의 영향력의 제한성. 제3의 길 정책은 정책 부조화로 인한 1970년대 스웨덴 경제의 문제점들을 해결하기 위해 도입된 정책 패키지로서 다음과 같은 것들을 핵심 정책요소로 포함하였다: 1982년의 공격적 평가절하; 세원은 넓히고 세율은 낮추는 방향의 조세개혁(1990-91년); 금융시장의 급진적 탈규제; 인플레이션 억제 정책. 제3의 길 정책은 1980년대 말 이전에는 좋은 성과를 보였으나 1980년대 말에 들어 높은 수준의 인플레이션과 거품경제로 인해 결국 1990년대 초의 금융위기를 초래하게 되었다. 제3의 길 정책이 인플레이션 억제에 실패한 원인으로는 다음과 같은 것을 들 수 있다. 1) 임금인상 억제 실패: 1980년대에 들어 중앙단체교섭체계가 해체되어감에 따라 임금 억제를 위한 제도적 환경이 소멸되어 갔고 임금인상 억제 게임의 외부자인 화이트칼라 노조의 영향력이 강화되어 제도적, 정치적 환경이 임금 억제 정책의 성공에 불리한 방향으로 변화해갔다(정책-환경 부조화). 2) 정책 부조화와 정책조합(policy mix)의 타이밍상의 문제점: 공격적 평가절하 이후에 단행된 금융시장 자유화조치는 인플레 압력을 강화시켰다. 1990/91년의 조세개혁도 재정적자를 초래하여 인플레 압력을 강화시켰다.제3의 길 정책의 전체 역사는 평가절하된 환율의 고수라는 새로이 설정된 외적 규범에 맞추어 내적 규범들을 확립하고자 하는 시도, 그러나 실패한 시도의 역사로 해석할 수 있다. 1990년대 초의 금융위기 이후에 형성된 거시정책 레짐은 기본적으로 통화주의적인 것으로서, EU 가입, 자유변동환율제 채택 등 외적인 제도적 닻(anchors)에 기초한 것이었다. 그런 점에서 제3의 길 정책은 1970년대까지의 케인스주의적 거시정책 레짐과 1990년대 이후의 통화주의적 거시정책 레짐 사이에 위치한 혼성적이고 과도적인 성격을 띠었다고 볼 수 있다.

The world famous Swedish Model has been transformed substantially since 1980s into more market-conformist socioeconomic system. This study tries to explain the transformation as the result of internal tensions among policies and institutions constitut ...

The world famous Swedish Model has been transformed substantially since 1980s into more market-conformist socioeconomic system. This study tries to explain the transformation as the result of internal tensions among policies and institutions constituting the Model. And it argues that the subsequent macroeconomic policy regimes introduced to solve the problems of the Model--especially 'the Third Way Economic Policy'(TWEP) in 1980s--also entailed important policy discords and thereby failed to solve the economic problems. Especially TWEP's failure to establish new stable norms is explained by its policy discords and the non-correspondence between its policy components and the institutional and political environments surrounding them.
The anlytical framework of this study encompasses the following concepts.
1) policy discords, policy-environmental discords: 'Theory of varieties of Capitalism' emphasizes the institutional complementarities as a vital condition for good performance of an economic system. But among institutions and policies constituting a system there can be not only complementarities but also discords. And policy mix and/or policy-institution mix are constructed or arranged in line with 'priority among policy goals'. And policies well fit to or well embedded in main institutional environments usually make good performances.
2) norm based policy vs. norm breaking policy: 'Norm based policy' is a policy which respects and follows the existing norms. 'Norm breaking policy' is the opposite one. 'Norm based policy' can be categorized into 'market norm based policy' and 'norm based policy by non-market coordination'. The main policies constituting the Swedish Model were second type ones. Norms constructed and maintained by non-market coordination need some prerequisites to be sustainable: mutual trust among game players; power balance of game players; balanced pay-offs among game players; limited influence of outsiders.

TWEP in 1980 was introduced to solve the economic turbulances in 1970s substantally due to policy discords and/or policy-institutional discords in the Swedish Model. TWEP entailed the following policy components: offensive devaluation in 1982; tax reform in 1990/1991 with the orientation of broader tax base and lower marginal tax rates; radical deregulation of financial market all through 1980s; anti-inflation policy.
The performance of TWEP was very good till late 1980s. But since then high infaltion and bubble economy deteriorated the policy and led the financial crisis in early 1990s. There are some reasons why TWEP failed to achieve low inflation rate. 1) Failure to keep wage moderation: The collapse of the centralized collective bargaining system in 1980s did not provide a good institutional environment for wage moderation. And the pwer resouces of white collar unions--they were outsiders of the wage moderation game--had been strengthened by the deindustrialization of the Swedish economy. Thus, TWEP was not well fit to the changed institutional environment of industrial realtions. 2) Policy discords and bad timing of policy mix: Deregulations of the financial market after the devaluation aggravated the inflationary pressure. The underfinanced tax reform in 1990/91 also contributed to that. TWEP was not successful in building policy mix especailly in timing of policy arrangements.

The whole history of TWEP can be interpreted as failed efforts to form a internal norms in line with the newly set external norms, i.e., to keep the fixed exchange rate. The macroeconomic policy regime after the financial crisis in early 1990s is basically monetarist one with external anchors, i.e, participating in EU, introducing floating exchange rate system. Thus, TWEP was a tansitional and hybrid economic policy regime between traditional Keynesian one and monetarist one.

The world famous Swedish Model has been transformed substantially since 1980s into more market-conformist socioeconomic system. This study tries to explain the transformation as the result of internal tensions among policies and institutions constitut ...

The world famous Swedish Model has been transformed substantially since 1980s into more market-conformist socioeconomic system. This study tries to explain the transformation as the result of internal tensions among policies and institutions constituting the Model. And it argues that the subsequent macroeconomic policy regimes introduced to solve the problems of the Model--especially 'the Third Way Economic Policy'(TWEP) in 1980s--also entailed important policy discords and thereby failed to solve the economic problems. Especially TWEP's failure to establish new stable norms is explained by its policy discords and the non-correspondence between its policy components and the institutional and political environments surrounding them.
The anlytical framework of this study encompasses the following concepts.
1) policy discords, policy-environmental discords: 'Theory of varieties of Capitalism' emphasizes the institutional complementarities as a vital condition for good performance of an economic system. But among institutions and policies constituting a system there can be not only complementarities but also discords. And policy mix and/or policy-institution mix are constructed or arranged in line with 'priority among policy goals'. And policies well fit to or well embedded in main institutional environments usually make good performances.
2) norm based policy vs. norm breaking policy: 'Norm based policy' is a policy which respects and follows the existing norms. 'Norm breaking policy' is the opposite one. 'Norm based policy' can be categorized into 'market norm based policy' and 'norm based policy by non-market coordination'. The main policies constituting the Swedish Model were second type ones. Norms constructed and maintained by non-market coordination need some prerequisites to be sustainable: mutual trust among game players; power balance of game players; balanced pay-offs among game players; limited influence of outsiders.

TWEP in 1980 was introduced to solve the economic turbulances in 1970s substantally due to policy discords and/or policy-institutional discords in the Swedish Model. TWEP entailed the following policy components: offensive devaluation in 1982; tax reform in 1990/1991 with the orientation of broader tax base and lower marginal tax rates; radical deregulation of financial market all through 1980s; anti-inflation policy.
The performance of TWEP was very good till late 1980s. But since then high infaltion and bubble economy deteriorated the policy and led the financial crisis in early 1990s. There are some reasons why TWEP failed to achieve low inflation rate. 1) Failure to keep wage moderation: The collapse of the centralized collective bargaining system in 1980s did not provide a good institutional environment for wage moderation. And the pwer resouces of white collar unions--they were outsiders of the wage moderation game--had been strengthened by the deindustrialization of the Swedish economy. Thus, TWEP was not well fit to the changed institutional environment of industrial realtions. 2) Policy discords and bad timing of policy mix: Deregulations of the financial market after the devaluation aggravated the inflationary pressure. The underfinanced tax reform in 1990/91 also contributed to that. TWEP was not successful in building policy mix especailly in timing of policy arrangements.

The whole history of TWEP can be interpreted as failed efforts to form a internal norms in line with the newly set external norms, i.e., to keep the fixed exchange rate. The macroeconomic policy regime after the financial crisis in early 1990s is basically monetarist one with external anchors, i.e, participating in EU, introducing floating exchange rate system. Thus, TWEP was a tansitional and hybrid economic policy regime between traditional Keynesian one and monetarist one.

이 연구는 1980년대의 '제3의 길 정책'의 실패원인에 대한 분석과 1990년대 초의 금융위기 이후 통화주의적 거시경제정책 레짐의 출현배경을 포괄하고 있는데, 이를 두 편의 논문, 즉 '제 3의 길' 정책에 관한 논문과 1990년대 이후 거시경제정책에 관한 논문으로 나누어 ...

이 연구는 1980년대의 '제3의 길 정책'의 실패원인에 대한 분석과 1990년대 초의 금융위기 이후 통화주의적 거시경제정책 레짐의 출현배경을 포괄하고 있는데, 이를 두 편의 논문, 즉 '제 3의 길' 정책에 관한 논문과 1990년대 이후 거시경제정책에 관한 논문으로 나누어 집필하여 학진 등재(후보지) 이상 학술지에 투고하고자 한다. 평이 좋을 경우 영문논문으로 다시 작성하여 국제학술지에 투고하고자 한다. 장기적으로는 1980년대 이후 노사관계 및 노동시장 변동에 관한 연구와 사회정책의 변모에 관한 연구를 수행하여, 몇년 내에 1980년대 이후 스웨덴 모델의 변화과정을 종합적으로 다루는 단행본 연구서를 출간하기를 희망한다.