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포스트시즌 구조가 전력평준화 및 관중수요에 미치는 영향: 한국프로야구
Reports NRF is supported by Research Projects( 포스트시즌 구조가 전력평준화 및 관중수요에 미치는 영향: 한국프로야구 | 2007 Year | 이영훈(서강대학교) ) data is submitted to the NRF Project Results
Researcher who has been awarded a research grant by Humanities and Social Studies Support Program of NRF has to submit an end product within 6 months(* depend on the form of business)
  • Researchers have entered the information directly to the NRF of Korea research support system
Project Number B00154
Year(selected) 2007 Year
the present condition of Project 종료
State of proposition 재단승인
Completion Date 2009년 01월 09일
Year type 결과보고
Year(final report) 2009년
Research Summary
  • Korean
  • 포스트시즌 구조에 따라 포스트시즌 수입은 영향을 받는다. 그러나 포스트시즌 구조와 정규시즌 관중수요간 관계에 대한 연구는 미미 하였다. 본 논문에서는 포스트시즌구조가 변화함에 따라 플레이오프 불확실성이 영향을 받아 결과적으로 관중수요에 영향을 미침을 실증적으로 보이고 있다. 구체적인 연구내용은 다음과 같다.

    1. 플레이오프 불확실성을 측정하는 metric을 개발함. 이를 이용해 100여년 역사의 메이저리그의 연간 플레이오프 불확실성자료를 계산함.
    2. 포스트시즌구조와 플레이오프 불확실성과 관계를 분석. 미국 메이저리그에서는 두차례 포스트시즌 구조변화가 있었고 두차례 모두 플레이오프 불확실성을 향상시키는데 기여한 것으로 나타났음.
    3. 관중수요방정식을 구조변화를 고려한 모형에 적용하여 실증분석한 결과 플레이오프 불확실성이 높아질수록 정규시즌 관중이 늘어나는 것으로 나타났음.

    결과적으로 메이저리그에서는 두차례 포스트시즌 구조변경이 정규리그 관중수요에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 작용하였다.
  • English
  • Competitive balance is one of the most extensively analyzed issues in sports economics: the greater the competitive balance in a league, the more uncertain the outcome becomes. There are several dimensions of competitive balance (Cairns, 1987; Sanderson, 2002; Fort, 2006; Fort and Lee, 2006b). Cairns (1987) categorized uncertainty of outcome into three dimensions: uncertainty of individual matches, uncertainty of the championship, and long-run domination of the championship by a particular team. Fort and Lee (2006b) subdivided competitive balance into three similar dimensions: game uncertainty, playoff uncertainty (PU), and consecutive season uncertainty. Game uncertainty concerns the predictability of individual games, while PU represents the closeness of the race in a regular season for the playoffs or for the championship. Consecutive season uncertainty considers chronic superiority and inferiority in pennant races by a number of teams. Considering all three facets of competitive balance in the attendance regression, Fort and Lee (2006b) found that PU is the only type of competitive balance to impact Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance with statistical significance.
    Considering the significant impact on attendance and the potential manageability of PU, comprehensive analyses of PU should both add to the literature and provide practical information and applications for league policy. In this paper, we present such an analysis. We first discuss an alternative PU measure developed based on two criteria: (i) that the measure accounts for the PU of every member team in a league, not just eventual division winners and runner-ups, and (ii) that the measure considers the fact that the impacts of one unit change in games back (GB) on PU for a team trailing by one game is not identical to that for a team trailing by, for example, ten games. Second, we analyze the relationship between PU and postseason structure. In MLB, two changes to the postseason structure took place in 1969 and 1994. These restructurings allowed more teams to be involved in postseason competitions: from two teams during 1901?1968 to four teams during 1969?1993 and to eight teams since 1994. Third, we test the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis with our new PU measure by applying the same econometric methodology as Fort and Lee (2006b). Another testable hypothesis is that a unit change in our PU measure may impact attendance differently under different postseason structures because PU was artificially changed. We thus test the hypothesis that the manipulated enhancement of PU has an equal strength of impact on fan demand as does a natural enhancement of PU. We also compare how postseason restructuring affects attendance, by the enhancement of PU.


Research result report
  • Abstract
  • We analyzed issues of playoff uncertainty (PU) by examining competitive balance and outcome uncertainty. Specifically, we (i) developed an alternative measure of PU, (ii) analyzed the relationship between PU and postseason structure in Major League Baseball (MLB), and (iii) tested the PU of the outcome hypothesis using our PU measure. The results provide empirical evidence that postseason restructurings in 1969 and 1995 enhanced the PU significantly and had positive effects on fan demand for MLB. This implies that the league office can partly control PU by revising the league structure and thus increasing fan demand.
  • Research result and Utilization method
  • In the extensive literature on team sports, relatively few reports have looked at the impact of postseason structure on competitive balance and fan demand. However, manipulation of the postseason structure can change the nature of the product. In MLB, both the AL and NL decided league champions based solely on regular season records until 1968. Since then, the leagues have been separated into divisions, and the league champions have been decided by playoff games. Under this structure, the regular season determines which teams will advance to the playoffs.
    Our study helps clarify the impact of the postseason structure on PU and fan demand as represented by attendance at MLB games. We first analyzed the measurement of PU and compared the level of PU under different postseason structures. The results show that postseason restructurings have allowed more teams to be involved in regular-season contests to advance to the playoffs and have thus enhanced PU. Second, we investigated the playoff uncertainty of outcome hypothesis and tested the null hypothesis that manipulated and natural increases in PU have identical impacts on attendance. We found that PU has statistically detectable impacts on attendance, and a unit of PU enhancement following postseason restructuring has the same impact on fan demand (as shown by attendance) as before the restructuring. These findings have significant policy implications. By postseason restructuring (or league restructuring), it is possible to manipulate the competitive balance and thereby enhance fan demand. Both postseason restructurings of MLB were successful with respect to PU.
    Two issues for further studies arise from these results. The first involves an optimal postseason structure with respect to the effect on the regular season fan demand. Suppose a league office decreases the number of teams per playoff spot. Then, the playoff uncertainty for a weak team would increase, whereas that of a strong team would decrease because the team may clinch its playoff birth early in a season. Therefore, a decrease in the number of teams per playoff spot does not always enhance its league PU.
    The second issue is how to apply our measure to different sports leagues. In the NBA and NHL, fully half the teams participate in the playoffs. The MLB allows only division winners and one wild-card winners to advance to the playoffs. On the other hand, the NBA allows multiple teams in a division to play postseason games. Note that there was a 30 game difference in wins between the best team (Boston Celtics) and the best team not in the playoffs (Indiana Pacers) during the 2007?2008 season in the NBA, while there was only an eight game difference in the MLB. Naturally, the PU of some strong teams would not be high in the NBA since they can clinch a playoff spot early. Therefore, our measure should be modified to reflect this detrimental effect of allowing many teams in the playoffs.
  • Index terms
  • competitive balance, playoff uncertainty, uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, fan demand, major league baseball
  • List of digital content of this reports
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