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근로 소득 변동성 추이에 관한 연구
Reports NRF is supported by Research Projects( 근로 소득 변동성 추이에 관한 연구 | 2007 Year | 신동균(경희대학교) ) data is submitted to the NRF Project Results
Researcher who has been awarded a research grant by Humanities and Social Studies Support Program of NRF has to submit an end product within 6 months(* depend on the form of business)
  • Researchers have entered the information directly to the NRF of Korea research support system
Project Number B00118
Year(selected) 2007 Year
the present condition of Project 종료
State of proposition 재단승인
Completion Date 2008년 12월 04일
Year type 결과보고
Year(final report) 2008년
Research Summary
  • Korean
  • The Panel study of Income Dynamics(PSID) 데이터를 이용하여 근로소득의 변동성의 장기 추세를 연구한 기존의 논문들은 그 결론이 상호 불일치할 뿐만이 아니라 Current Populaton Survey(CPS) 자료나 Social Security(SS) 자료로 추정한 연구 결과들과도 일치하지 않는다. 또한 기존의 연구들은 소득변동성의 추세를 분석함에 있어서 소득변동 중 일시적인 성분만을 분석에 포함시켰다. 그러나 소득 위험의 추세가 우리의 궁극적인 관심일진대 분석과정에서 소득변동의 영속적인 부분도 포함시켜야 할 것이다. 이를 고려하여 현 연구에서는 PSID 자료를 재분석하였다. 그 결과 나타난 소득 변동성의 추이는 CPS나 SS자료에 나타난 추세와 비슷하게 1970년대에는 급격히 증가하다가 80년대 초에 정점을 이룬 후 1990년대 말까지 정체 내지 약간 감소추세를 보이다가 2000년부터 재차 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 소득변동성은 강하게 경기역행적인 것으로 나타났다.
  • English
  • Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics data for 1969 through 2004, we examine movements in men’s earnings volatility. Like many previous studies, we find that earnings volatility is substantially countercyclical. As for secular trends, we find that men’s earnings volatility increased during the 1970s, but did not show a clear trend afterwards until a new upward trend appeared in the last few years.
Research result report
  • Abstract
  • Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics data for 1969 through 2004, we examine movements in men’s earnings volatility. Like many previous studies, we find that earnings volatility is substantially countercyclical. As for secular trends, we find that men’s earnings volatility increased during the 1970s, but did not show a clear trend afterwards until a new upward trend appeared in the last few years.
  • Research result and Utilization method
  • Our reanalysis of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics has found that, apart from business cycle fluctuations, men’s earnings volatility trended upwards during the 1970s, but did not show a clear secular trend after that until climbing again after 1998. These patterns are broadly consistent with those that Cameron and Tracy (1998) found in the Current Population Survey and that the Congressional Budget Office (2007) found in Social Security administrative data.
  • Index terms
  • volatility, earings, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, men
  • List of digital content of this reports
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