⋅How Does Public Housing Affect Neighboring Apartment Prices and Migration?
This paper examines the effect of building public housing complexes, called Bogemjari districts on neighboring apartment prices and migration trends. This study exploits tr ...
⋅How Does Public Housing Affect Neighboring Apartment Prices and Migration?
This paper examines the effect of building public housing complexes, called Bogemjari districts on neighboring apartment prices and migration trends. This study exploits transaction data provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) and the Migration Survey conducted by the National Statistical Office. Bogemjari districts in Seoul, Gyeong-gi, and Incheon (Seoul capitalarea, SCA) were included in the sample. To investigate the causal inference, this study implemented the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method. Findings show that the selection of Bogemjari housing district decreases the neighboring apartment prices by 5.8%, and remains stable when the number of transactions is included in the model. This result can be explained by two different mechanisms: (1) negative capitalization of public housing, and (2) expectations of increasing future house supply. Moreover, this negative effect was also identified through the inflow of population, which lower the inflow rate of the treatment group by 9%
⋅Public Housing Policies in South Korea
South Korean governments have introduced various policies to make housing affordable. As each government has introduced a new set of policies in addition to existing ones, it is challenging to make comparisons across different types of housing subsidies. To address this
challenge, we provide a unified framework based on the OECD classification. We apply the framework to social housing programs that physically provide houses to those in need and compare those programs
in Korea with those in OECD countries. We further identify how the social housing programs in Korea have evolved over time in terms of their legal status and target populations.
⋅How do House Prices Affect Consumption Patterns Across Categories? : Evidence from the card transaction data
This paper examines the extent to which house prices may affect consumption patterns across categories. For this purpose, we merge house price data with transaction data between 2012 and 2016, provided by a major credit card company in South Korea. We find a positive relationship between house prices and overall consumption. The effect is higher in regions which have higher home ownership rate and LTV. It suggests that the change of housing price affects consumption through wealth effect and alleviating borrowing constraints. Also, there is a great heterogeneity across consumption categories in terms of consumption elascity on house prices varying from 0.144 to 0.420. Finally, based on our calculation, the change in house price accounts for 5.9% of total sales growth for consumption categories.
⋅Dynamics and Determinants of the Gender Gap in Math Test Scores
We empirically examine students’ academic achievement across school grades and identify the factors that account for the gender gap, focusing on mathematics. We use an administrative dataset from 2009 to 2016 that contains elementary, middle, and high school students. After controlling for individual, household, and school characteristics, we find that the gender gap shown in the 6th grade disappears in 9th grade, and then, in 11th grade, girls perform better than their male peers. The gender gap in math test scores is largely accounted for by private education, mother’s education, and the gender composition among school peers. The results imply that the gender gap can be reduced by changing parents’ gender norms or changing school characteristics.
⋅How do House Prices Affect Fertility?
The change of house prices may affect households's decisions on marriage and childbirth. In this context, we plan to analyze the causal relationship between house prices and fertility exploiting transaction data from Ministry of Land and Vital Statistics from Statistics Korea. Our results indicate, however, there is no statistically significant relationship between house prices and fertility rate. Although the selection of Bogemjari housing district decreases house prices, the number of births, the number of marriages, fertility rate, marriage rate do not have significant relationship with the selection of the districts. Also, we directly exploit house transaction data from Ministry of Land but the results are the same. We, thus, do not proceed this project into writing a academic paper
⋅Household Debt and Default: Effect fo Change in Loan Balance and Affordability
Despite the dramatic increase in the household debt, the default rate, a risk indicator of mortgage loans, has decreased and remained relatively low. Using a borrower-level microdata from Korea Credit Bureau from the first quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2016, we analyze the effect of the increase in household loan balance on the delinquency rate. We
find that a borrower with higher loan balance has a higher default risk. However, controlling for the loan balance, an increase in loan balance is likely to decrease the default risk in the short term. The results were robust when the samples were divided into bank loans and non-bank loans, which are known to have a higher default risk. However, when the DTI (Debt-to-Income) ratio, a measure of affordability or replayment ability, increased due to the additional loan, the default risk increased the default risk increased. In particular, the increase in the default risk was substantial when DTI reached over 60% due to the additional loan. Our results imply that change in debt affordability plays an important role in explaining the delinquency probability. Moreover, in the perspective of macroprudential policy, our results emphasize the importance of maintaining the affordability by DTI regulation than focusing on the aggregate loan balance.